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7 Dec 2008

Reliance Industries correct valuation

1. I am posting a gist of report by ICICI Securities related to the Reliance Industries’ (RIL) where in it has advised people to enter at the levels of Rs 1,124 and see an upside of 32.5% with target as Rs 1,499.

2. Its concerns is related to the RIL-Reliance Natural Gas Resources (RNRL) court case and the delay in production from Reliance Petroleum (RPL) refinery which can be an inherent risk for the stock. If the cases do not go in line with reliance requirements than govt will intervene to calculate the profit sharing at the approved price of $4.2 per mmbtu and this can significantly affect the future growth of Reliance. Moreover it is deliberately delaying the commencement of RPL till April 2009 to get benefitted from tax shield for another year.

3. The price has been realistically set seeing the de-rating of petchem and refining businesses reduction in value of investments in RPL, retail and SEZ, and lower valuation of future reserve accretion. Thus one can reconsider the investments in reliance in light of new facts.

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