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27 Apr 2009

JP MORGAN Report on Reliance Industries

JP Morgan has released a report related to investment in Reliance Industries and same is appended below for easy comprehension. It considers its 4Q FY09 results better than expected and considers that this year will be a case of consolidation for the stock.

RIL reported pre-exceptional 4Q FY09 net profit of Rs39B (flat y/y), higher than our and consensus estimates (Rs36.5B). Better-than-expected petchem margin and forex gains were key drivers for the higher earnings. Refining margins were marginally higher than expected at US$9.9/bbl.

• Projects up and running, ramp-up to drive earnings over FY10-11: RPL commenced commercial production in Mar-09 and >90% utilization is expected by Sep-09. KGD6 gas production commenced in Apr-09 with current production of ~10mmsmcd, to ramp up to 40mmsmcd by Sep-08, and 80mmsmcd by Mar-10. Refining volumes and gas revenues should drive a 30% earnings CAGR over FY09-11E.

• Petchem surprises; RIL expects pain to come in FY11: Restocking, demand, and supply discipline led to a rebound in petrochem margins in 4Q. RIL believes a petrochem downturn could be pushed to FY11 as 1) stock levels are still 30-40% below normal (further restocking possible), and 2) the full impact of new capacity will be felt only in 2010.

• Refining – waiting for supply discipline: RIL assesses around 10mbpd of private refining capacity were at loss/break-even levels. It believes that a significant number of these refineries will shut down, which would help balance the global refining industry. Low opex (c. US$2/bbl v/s US$5/bbl for peers) will help RIL weather the downturn, in the company’s view.

• Prudent strategy: Slowing on capex: RIL plans capex of US$4-4.5B on E&P development, exploration, and RPL completion. Capex on new projects will be deferred and RIL will hold cash through the downturn. Management likened this to a year of consolidation for RIL.

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