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28 May 2009

Is Economic Recovery in Sight in India?


1. The question that is economic recovery in Sight in India may be too early too answer because this fact comes straight from the horses mouth Mr. Rakesh Mohan, the Deputy Governor of Reserve bank of India (RBI), who feels that the rally in equity prices does not indicate that an economic recovery is in sight. However RBI deseves kudos that we are not in recession today as the same is proved by the list of countries which are not affected by recession and thus Indian Stock Market have again going up to the relief of million of investors.

2. To put all the doubts to rest he states that RBI takes several indicators into consideration in it assessment of the economic situation - financial markets, industrial production, GDP growth, agricultural production, monsoon, bond markets. Hence, the RBI will not reverse its easy monetary policy just yet.

3. RBI on its part has done more than enough to infuse liquidity in the Indian economy and prop up growth and notable features worth mentioning are - slashing interest rates, reducing reserve ratios and buying back government bonds. It is likely that RBI may buy back government bonds to the tune of Rs 800 bn in 1HCY09.

4. One must appreciate this fatc that formulating monetary policy in India is more difficult than in other countries as one has to cater for the administered interest rates, capital account controls and a big fiscal deficit.
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